Lebanon’s New President: Prospects for 2025

Seonghoon Paik

Senior Researcher, HIMEA

A Historic Election Amid Crisis

On January 9, 2025, Lebanon's Parliament elected Army Commander Joseph Aoun as the country’s 14th president, ending a two-year political vacuum. This historic election offers a glimmer of hope for reform, stability, and national unity in a country devastated by economic collapse, political paralysis, and ongoing conflict with Israel. However, President Aoun faces daunting challenges—chief among them is managing Lebanon’s relationship with Hezbollah, a key determinant of his administration's success or failure. This article explores the significance of Aoun’s election, the obstacles ahead, and implications for Lebanon’s future.

The Road to Election

Lebanon had been without a president since October 2022, when Michel Aoun (unrelated to Joseph Aoun) left office. Deep divisions within Parliament made it nearly impossible to elect a successor, reflecting the entrenched sectarian political system and the dominant influence of Hezbollah, a Shiite militia backed by Iran. Joseph Aoun's election was made possible largely due to sustained international pressure from the so-called Quintet—comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Egypt, and Qatar.

A Maronite Christian who has served in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) since 1983, Aoun has been Commander-in-Chief since 2017. He was elected in the second round of voting with 99 out of 128 parliamentary votes. His candidacy gained momentum when Hezbollah withdrew support for its initial candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, and backed Aoun instead—signaling a shift in Hezbollah's posture after its military and political weakening during a 14-month conflict with Israel.

A Nation in Crisis

President Aoun takes office at a time of unprecedented national crisis. Lebanon has been in severe economic decline since 2019: GDP has contracted by 38%, and inflation reached 221% in 2023. The 2023–2024 conflict with Israel worsened the situation, causing an estimated $8.5 billion in damages, displacing 1.3 million people, and destroying critical infrastructure.

Additionally, Lebanon hosts approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees—90% of whom live in poverty. The entrenched political elite, widely seen as corrupt and ineffectual, has failed to enact meaningful reform, leaving the population disillusioned and desperate for change.

President Aoun’s Vision

In his inaugural address, President Aoun laid out an ambitious agenda to rebuild state institutions, eliminate corruption, and restore national sovereignty. His vision includes:

1. Monopoly on Armed Force: Aoun declared that the Lebanese Armed Forces must have exclusive control over all weapons within Lebanon, directly challenging Hezbollah’s armed status and paving the way for a national dialogue on integrating Hezbollah’s arsenal into the state.

2. Judicial Reform: He pledged to reform the judiciary and prevent political interference—an essential step in addressing widespread impunity and human rights abuses.

3. Economic Recovery and Reconstruction: Aoun identified economic recovery and post-conflict reconstruction as top priorities, and endorsed administrative decentralization to empower local governments.

4. National Unity: He called for a broad national dialogue to bridge deep political and sectarian divides and foster a shared vision for the country’s future.

Hezbollah: The Defining Factor

How President Aoun manages relations with Hezbollah will be the ultimate test of his leadership. Often described as a “deep state,” Hezbollah exerts tremendous influence across Lebanon’s political, economic, and social sectors while maintaining an independent armed force that challenges state sovereignty.

Hezbollah’s military and political standing has been significantly weakened in recent months. The group lost its leader Hassan Nasrallah and thousands of fighters during the recent conflict with Israel. In December 2024, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria—a key ally and arms conduit—further eroded Hezbollah’s regional influence.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah remains a formidable domestic actor. It holds substantial parliamentary power and has previously held cabinet positions. Although Hezbollah supported Aoun’s candidacy, it is unlikely to disarm or relinquish its political role voluntarily.

President Aoun must lead efforts to integrate Hezbollah’s armed wing into the state security structure. This will require delicate negotiations with Hezbollah while also earning public support for diminishing the group’s influence. Balancing international demands for Hezbollah’s disarmament with Lebanon’s internal political dynamics will be a formidable challenge.

International Support and Regional Dynamics

President Aoun’s election has been welcomed by the international community. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and France view his leadership as a potential turning point to stabilize Lebanon and curb Iran’s regional influence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also expressed readiness to consider financial support conditional on credible economic reforms.

However, regional tensions complicate Aoun’s task. Despite a ceasefire, parts of southern Lebanon remain under Israeli occupation, sparking controversy. Aoun has committed to pursuing Israeli withdrawal and deterring future attacks, but this will require nuanced diplomacy and sustained international backing.

The Road Ahead

Joseph Aoun’s presidency offers Lebanon a rare opportunity for renewal. His reform agenda and emphasis on national unity could reshape the country’s future—but his success hinges on several critical factors:

1. Political Will: Aoun must navigate Lebanon’s fractured political landscape and build coalitions with entrenched power brokers who may resist reform.

2. International Backing: Financial and institutional support from the global community is essential for Lebanon’s recovery. Aoun must also work to regain the confidence of foreign investors and donors.

3. Managing Hezbollah: Effectively addressing Hezbollah’s armed status requires strategic negotiation and institutional reform. Aoun’s proposed national dialogue could provide a framework for resolution.

4. Restoring Public Trust: Rebuilding public confidence in government must be a top priority. Aoun must demonstrate commitment to transparency, accountability, and inclusive governance to gain the support of a deeply disillusioned citizenry.

Conclusion

President Joseph Aoun’s election marks a pivotal moment for Lebanon. His vision for reform, reconstruction, and national unity holds the potential to transform the country’s political and economic trajectory. However, the path ahead will be steep. His success depends on bold leadership, diplomatic finesse, and the support of both the Lebanese people and the international community. Above all, how he navigates Lebanon’s fraught relationship with Hezbollah will determine whether this presidency can truly deliver a new era of peace and stability.

With Aoun’s election, Lebanon turns a new page. Whether his leadership can deliver lasting reform and prosperity to a long-suffering nation remains to be seen—but hope, at last, has been rekindled.