통합 검색
통합 검색
- 작성자 HIMEA
- 조회수 44
The dismantling of Hezbollah is underway, but removing southern social movements will likely prove difficult
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon’s southernmost region is proceeding smoothly. According to Salam, approximately 80% of the objective has been achieved, as he stated in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on May 29. He also emphasized that the central government must hold exclusive authority over weapons and military command throughout the country.
However, the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah are unlikely to achieve significant success. Moreover, if Hezbollah resists, such actions could trigger serious political turmoil, potentially escalating into civil conflict.
Establishment of an Anti-Hezbollah Government in Lebanon
Last year, during Israel’s large-scale offensive, Hezbollah was significantly weakened in several aspects. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed, and thousands of its senior members were eliminated through Israel’s mobile phone explosion attacks. Taking advantage of this power vacuum, Joseph Aoun, a pro-Western figure, was elected president earlier this year, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, appointed by Aoun, has been actively pursuing Hezbollah’s disarmament measures.
In particular, with the help of Israeli intelligence, the Lebanese government has dismantled Hezbollah’s weapons depots and military bases in the south, allowing the Lebanese Armed Forces to regain command over areas south of the Litani River, the country’s southernmost region.
Efforts to Secure Military Command across the Entire Country
With its power significantly weakened, Hezbollah has effectively surrendered its southernmost military strongholds bordering Israel. In addition, it has transferred control of several other areas, including Beirut International Airport, to the central government. Reflecting this trend, both Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government and the United States have emphasized that Hezbollah must be fully disarmed throughout Lebanon, including the southern regions. The Lebanese government, the United States, and Israel all view the current moment—marked by Hezbollah’s declining influence—as a critical opportunity to advance the disarmament process.
The Elimination of Hezbollah Is Impossible
Although Hezbollah has agreed to disarm its forces in the southernmost region in accordance with the ceasefire with Israel, it is unlikely to adopt the same stance elsewhere. It is unrealistic to expect this armed political organization—which has exercised immense influence for decades, particularly in the south, and represents the majority Shiite population—to voluntarily relinquish all its privileges and power. Therefore, unless Hezbollah itself cooperates, it will be virtually impossible for the Lebanese government to dismantle the group by force.
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