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Economic Prospects after the Iran–Israeli War
Geopolitical Shifts, Energy Markets, and Global Outlook
Summary prepared from Dr. Moamen Gouda’s presentation (HUFS, 2025)
1. Context and Key Question
The Iran–Israel war caused a temporary but significant oil shock and renewed global market uncertainty. The Middle East remains critical for energy and trade due to the Strait of Hormuz (carrying 30–33% of seaborne oil and ~20% of LNG) and the Suez Canal. The central question is how such disruptions shape short- and medium-term global economic prospects.
2. Implications on Energy Markets
- Iran produces ~3.6 mb/d (~3.5% of global crude).
- Strait of Hormuz is the world's key chokepoint; 20% of LNG flows through.
- Brent crude spiked ~17% to ~$80/bbl in June 2025 before retreating.
- JPMorgan warns underpricing of Hormuz disruption risk (oil could exceed $100/bbl).
- Israel’s gas exports (~13 bcm in 2024) vulnerable due to lack of LNG capacity.
3. Implications on Supply Chains
- Physical flows continued, but insurance premiums spiked.
- Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope increased costs and times.
- Long-term: multi-route planning and inventory buffers.
- Bottom line: physical supply resilient, but reliability and costs worsened.
4. Implications on FDI
- Investors cautious; early hits to tourism and deals.
- GCC megaprojects continue but with higher risk buffers.
- Energy and LNG remain investable, logistics/tourism face challenges.
- Net effect: selective but slowed FDI, with higher expected returns.
5. Implications on Inflation
- $10/bbl increase in oil → +0.3–0.4 pp in global CPI.
- Asia & Europe most vulnerable; U.S. cushioned.
- Food imports (wheat, corn) worsen inflation in MENA.
- Overall: renewed inflation pulse strongest in import-dependent economies.
6. Implications on Economic Growth
- Importers (Egypt, Turkey, Jordan): slowed growth from energy bills.
- Israel: fiscal strain from defense + weaker tech/tourism.
- Iran: sanctions + discounts limit oil gains.
- GCC exporters: resilient from oil windfalls but face financing cost pressures.
7. Implications on Economic & Political Stability
- Al Udeid strike dented Gulf security credibility.
- Higher food/energy bills stress fragile states.
- JPMorgan: markets underprice tail risks.
- Stability depends on maritime security and fiscal cushions.
8. Scenario Analysis
Scenario 1: Containment / Limited Escalation
- Brent stabilizes $75–85/bbl with $5–10 premium.
- Inflation: +0.2–0.3 pp, fading as trade routes stabilize.
- Growth: GCC intact, Israel pressured, MENA importers stressed.
- FDI: modest slowdown.
- Stability: Gulf credibility holds but weakened.
Scenario 2: Escalation / Major Disruption
- Oil >$100/bbl; LNG +30–40%; insurance +25%.
- Inflation: +0.5–0.7 pp globally.
- Growth: global downgrade (–0.3–0.5 pp GDP).
- FDI & supply chains: projects stall, freight >10%.
- Stability: protests in import-dependent states; political instability risks grow.
9. Policy Implications
- Energy: diversify supply, build reserves.
- Trade: protect chokepoints, expand patrols.
- Macro: targeted subsidies, avoid blanket controls.
- Private sector: hedge, diversify supply chains.
10. Key Takeaway
The conflict revealed systemic fragility in energy and trade. Exporters benefit temporarily, but risks to inflation, growth, and stability remain high. Long-term resilience requires diversification of energy sources, trade routes, and effective crisis management.
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